Pacific Media Associates (PMA) has released the results of its latest quarterly projector industry forecast updates. These are enhanced versions of its previous quarterly reports, as they include the industry’s first detailed illumination forecast (for all product ranges) of the projector industry and show how projectors are affected by the different types of solid-state illumination technologies coming to market.
PMA divides the front projector industry into three brightness ranges, each associated with its own set of buyer types and applications: New Era (sub-500 lumens), Mainstream (500-4999 lumens), and High-End (5000+ lumens).
In the New Era range (pico, personal and toy/game projectors), use of LED light engines are expected to grow by 40 percent this year and next. In the Mainstream range, use of Laser and LED illumination is expected to increase in unit sales by more than 50 percent in 2012. Shipments of Laser/LED hybrid models are forecasted to grow modestly this year, and then are expected to grow by more than 40 percent each year during 2013-2015. Shipments of laser illuminated units are expected to begin in 2013 for the High-End and d-Cinema ranges. In 2014, PMA anticipates a growth rate of more than 80 percent for the High-End laser models and nearly double for the Digital Cinema laser models.
PMA’s quarterly forecast also identifies the anticipated growth of relatively inexpensive, medium-throw projectors (i.e., ones with a throw ratiothe lens-to-screen distance divided by the screen widthof 0.38 to <0.75). Michael Abramson, PMA’s vice president of projector research says, “While outlook for ultra-short-throw projectors (i.e., ones with a throw ratio of <0.38) is still very promising, there are a lot more medium-throw projectors coming to market that allow big-screen viewing from up-close distances — in the office, in the classroom, and even in the home — all at budget-friendly prices.” Unit shipments of medium-throw projectors are expected to increase by nearly 20 percent each year during 2012-2014, while the average street price for these projectors predicted to drop by more than 50 percent by 2016.
The PMA forecast also anticipates a different shift in resolution mix for each of the three brightness ranges in the coming years. For New Era projectors, 720p units are expected to start shipping in 2012, with 1080p units expected to ship in 2013. For the Mainstream range, 2012 shipments of WUXGA (1920×1200 pixels) and Above-WUXGA are anticipated to grow by more than 30 percent and by more than 70 percent from 2011, respectively. PMA also forecasts solid growth in 2K and 4K resolutions for the High-End range (non-Digital Cinema).